The natural history of HIV infection in women attending a sexually transmitted disease clinic in Dublin.

OBJECTIVE To determine the progression rates to AIDS in women in Dublin. SUBJECTS AND METHODS 109 HIV-1 seropositive women who presented to the Department of Genitourinary Medicine, St. James's Hospital, Dublin, were included in a retrospective analysis. Of these 101 (93%) were intravenous drug users (IVDUs), 7 were heterosexual partners of IVDUs and one had a hetero-sexual partner of no known risk group. Forty-four women (40%) had had 57 children since the time of their first known HIV seropositive test. Progression rates from CDC Stage 11/111 to AIDS are computed. Progression curves are generated according to the Kaplan-Meier method using the Statistical Analysis Software (SAS). RESULTS The estimated cumulative progression rate at 5 years was 24% (SE 6.6%). 17 out of 109 (15.6%) developed AIDS. The mean follow up time was 2.8 years (SE 0.2). The prevalence of oesophageal candidiasis taking development of AIDS as the point in time was 9 out of 17 (53%), of Mycobacterium hominis infection (TB) 5 (29%) and of Pneumocystis carcinii pneumonia (PCP) 2 (12%). There was no statistical difference in progression rates to AIDS between those women who had children after becoming infected versus those who had none. CONCLUSIONS Progression rates to AIDS in Irish women is higher than reported in other studies of homosexual/bisexual men, but is similar to rates estimated for both male and female IVDUs. Oesophageal candidiasis is the commonest presenting AIDS diagnosis followed by TB, while PCP is rare, contrary to the findings of similar studies in the USA.